Cruz Azul vs Atlas Guadalajara: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Cruz Azulvs
Atlas GuadalajaraThe model puts Cruz Azul at 59%. The model leans toward Cruz Azul. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Cruz Azul.
- +The head-to-head record favours Cruz Azul (7-5-3).
- −Cruz Azul are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Atlas Guadalajara are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Cruz Azul have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atlas Guadalajara have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cruz Azul have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Cruz Azul will be without Ditta, Palavecino, Piovi G., Morales.
- Atlas Guadalajara will be without Rocha A., Mmaee R., Sanchez.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Cruz Azul at 59%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Atlas Guadalajara at 20%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Cruz Azul. Cruz Azul is priced at 1.56. The draw is priced at 3.98. Atlas Guadalajara is priced at 5.52.
Cruz Azul have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Atlas Guadalajara have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Cruz Azul have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Atlas Guadalajara have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Atlas Guadalajara are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 45% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Cruz Azul or Atlas Guadalajara?
Our model rates Cruz Azul as the most likely outcome at 59% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Cruz Azul vs Atlas Guadalajara?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 Cruz Azul wins, 5 draws, 3 Atlas Guadalajara wins.
Match statistics
Cruz Azul
- 3Campos Chagoya
- 5Chiquete
- 6Lira E.
- 12Montes A.
- 16Marquez
- 17Garcia
- 18Romero
- 19Rodriguez Ca.
- 20Paradela J.
- 21Fernandez
- 23Mier K.
- Ditta (Missing Player)
- Palavecino (Questionable)
- Piovi G. (Questionable)
- Morales (Missing Player)
Atlas Guadalajara
- 6Zaldivar Valverde
- 11Lopes
- 12Vargas C.
- 13Aguirre G.
- 16Valenzuela M
- 21Schlegel R.
- 23Javier Hernandez
- 27Rios De Alba
- 28Capasso
- 58Gonzalez A.
- 203Martin
- Rocha A. (Questionable)
- Mmaee R. (Missing Player)
- Sanchez (Missing Player)
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10:2 | 13 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Toluca | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:4 | 10 |
| 3 |  Tijuana | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6:2 | 10 |
| 4 |  Monterrey | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12:7 | 9 |
| 5 |  Leon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7:5 | 9 |
| 6 | Atlas Guadalajara | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6:5 | 9 |
| 7 |  Pumas UNAM | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:5 | 7 |
| 8 |  Puebla | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:5 | 7 |
| 9 |  Queretaro | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:6 | 7 |
| 10 |  Guadalajara | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 7 |
| 11 | Cruz Azul | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8:8 | 6 |
| 12 |  Club Necaxa | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6:7 | 6 |
| 13 |  Atlante | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5:7 | 5 |
| 14 |  Tigres de la UANL | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8:10 | 4 |
| 15 |  Pachuca | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6:6 | 3 |
| 16 |  Atletico San Luis | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4:8 | 2 |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2:8 | 0 |
| 18 |  Juarez | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3:15 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.