Los Angeles vs Portland Timbers: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Los Angelesvs
Portland TimbersThe model puts Los Angeles at 63%. The model leans toward Los Angeles. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Portland Timbers.
- +Los Angeles score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Los Angeles have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Portland Timbers have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Los Angeles have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Los Angeles is priced at 1.456.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Los Angeles at 63%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Portland Timbers at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Los Angeles. Los Angeles is priced at 1.456. The draw is priced at 4.78. Portland Timbers is priced at 6.35.
Los Angeles have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Portland Timbers have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Los Angeles have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Portland Timbers have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Los Angeles average 2 goals per game this season. Los Angeles average 47% possession. Portland Timbers average 1 goals per game this season. Portland Timbers average 48% possession.
The model gives 47% for both teams to score. The model gives 57% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Los Angeles or Portland Timbers?
Our model rates Los Angeles as the most likely outcome at 63% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Los Angeles vs Portland Timbers?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Los Angeles wins, 4 draws, 5 Portland Timbers wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Houston Dynamo | 19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 28:24 | 35 |
| 2 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 38:17 | 34 |
| 3 | Los Angeles | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 35:20 | 34 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 38:27 | 33 |
| 5 |  St. Louis City | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 27:25 | 29 |
| 6 |  Real Salt Lake | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 30:26 | 28 |
| 7 |  Dallas | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32:25 | 27 |
| 8 |  Colorado Rapids | 19 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 29:25 | 25 |
| 9 |  Minnesota United | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 21:26 | 25 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 33:33 | 24 |
| 11 |  Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20:22 | 24 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 33:29 | 24 |
| 13 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 24:30 | 22 |
| 14 |  Austin | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 22:36 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 19 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 18:48 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.