Austin vs Philadelphia Union: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Austinvs
Philadelphia UnionThe model puts Philadelphia Union at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Austin.
- +Philadelphia Union score more per game (1.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- +Philadelphia Union creates more chances (13 vs 15 shots per game).
- −Austin controls more of the ball (55% vs 45%).
- +The head-to-head record favours Philadelphia Union (0-2-1).
Win probabilities
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Austin have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union is priced at 2.456.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Austin at 36%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Philadelphia Union at 40%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market frames this as a close contest. Austin is priced at 2.735. The draw is priced at 3.56. Philadelphia Union is priced at 2.456.
Philadelphia Union have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Austin have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Austin are on 3 wins in a row. Philadelphia Union have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Austin average 1 goals per game this season. Austin average 55% possession. Philadelphia Union average 2 goals per game this season. Philadelphia Union average 45% possession.
The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Austin or Philadelphia Union?
Our model rates Philadelphia Union as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Austin vs Philadelphia Union?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 0 Austin wins, 2 draws, 1 Philadelphia Union wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Houston Dynamo | 19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 28:24 | 35 |
| 2 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 38:17 | 34 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 35:20 | 34 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 38:27 | 33 |
| 5 |  St. Louis City | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 27:25 | 29 |
| 6 |  Real Salt Lake | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 30:26 | 28 |
| 7 |  Dallas | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32:25 | 27 |
| 8 |  Colorado Rapids | 19 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 29:25 | 25 |
| 9 |  Minnesota United | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 21:26 | 25 |
| 10 |  Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 33:33 | 24 |
| 11 |  Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20:22 | 24 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 33:29 | 24 |
| 13 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 24:30 | 22 |
| 14 | Austin | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 22:36 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 19 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 18:48 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.