Orlando City vs Real Salt Lake: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Orlando Cityvs
Real Salt LakeThe model puts Orlando City at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Real Salt Lake.
- +Orlando City score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Orlando City have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Real Salt Lake have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Orlando City have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Orlando City is priced at 2.38.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Orlando City at 41%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Real Salt Lake at 36%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Orlando City is priced at 2.38. The draw is priced at 3.92. Real Salt Lake is priced at 2.64.
Orlando City have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Real Salt Lake have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Orlando City have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Real Salt Lake have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Orlando City average 2 goals per game this season. Orlando City average 46% possession. Real Salt Lake average 1 goals per game this season. Real Salt Lake average 49% possession.
The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Orlando City or Real Salt Lake?
Our model rates Orlando City as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Orlando City vs Real Salt Lake?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 7 meetings: 2 Orlando City wins, 3 draws, 2 Real Salt Lake wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 38:17 | 34 |
| 2 |  Los Angeles | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 35:19 | 34 |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 37:24 | 33 |
| 4 |  Houston Dynamo | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 27:24 | 32 |
| 5 | Real Salt Lake | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 29:25 | 27 |
| 6 |  Dallas | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32:25 | 27 |
| 7 |  St. Louis City | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24:24 | 26 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 33:33 | 24 |
| 9 |  Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20:22 | 24 |
| 10 |  Minnesota United | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20:25 | 24 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 18 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 27:25 | 22 |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 24:29 | 22 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 32:29 | 21 |
| 14 |  Austin | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 22:36 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 18:46 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.