Genoa vs Ascoli Calcio 1898: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Genoavs
Ascoli Calcio 1898The model puts Genoa at 66%. The model leans toward Genoa. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Genoa.
- +The head-to-head record favours Genoa (7-3-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Genoa have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ascoli Calcio 1898 have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Genoa have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Genoa is priced at 1.39.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 15 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Genoa at 66%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Ascoli Calcio 1898 at 15%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Genoa. Genoa is priced at 1.39. The draw is priced at 4.55. Ascoli Calcio 1898 is priced at 7.43.
Genoa have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Ascoli Calcio 1898 have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Genoa have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Ascoli Calcio 1898 have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 40% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Genoa or Ascoli Calcio 1898?
Our model rates Genoa as the most likely outcome at 66% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Genoa vs Ascoli Calcio 1898?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 12 meetings: 7 Genoa wins, 3 draws, 2 Ascoli Calcio 1898 wins.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.