Charlotte vs D.C. United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Charlottevs
D.C. UnitedThe model puts Charlotte at 53%. The model leans toward Charlotte. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Charlotte score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +Recent form favours Charlotte.
- −The head-to-head record favours D.C. United (3-1-6).
- +Charlotte creates more chances (13 vs 11 shots per game).
- +Charlotte controls more of the ball (49% vs 37%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Charlotte have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- D.C. United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Charlotte have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Charlotte is priced at 1.93.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Charlotte at 53%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts D.C. United at 25%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Charlotte. Charlotte is priced at 1.93. The draw is priced at 3.72. D.C. United is priced at 3.72.
Charlotte have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. D.C. United have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Charlotte have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. D.C. United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Charlotte average 2 goals per game this season. Charlotte average 49% possession. D.C. United average 1 goals per game this season. D.C. United average 37% possession.
The model gives 54% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Charlotte or D.C. United?
Our model rates Charlotte as the most likely outcome at 53% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Charlotte vs D.C. United?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 10 meetings: 3 Charlotte wins, 1 draws, 6 D.C. United wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Houston Dynamo | 19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 28:24 | 35 |
| 2 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 38:17 | 34 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 35:20 | 34 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 38:27 | 33 |
| 5 |  St. Louis City | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 27:25 | 29 |
| 6 |  Real Salt Lake | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 30:26 | 28 |
| 7 |  Dallas | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32:25 | 27 |
| 8 |  Colorado Rapids | 19 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 29:25 | 25 |
| 9 |  Minnesota United | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 21:26 | 25 |
| 10 |  Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 33:33 | 24 |
| 11 |  Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20:22 | 24 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 33:29 | 24 |
| 13 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 24:30 | 22 |
| 14 |  Austin | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 22:36 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 19 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 18:48 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.