Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito vs Mirassol: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quitovs
MirassolThe model puts Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito at 61%. The model leans toward Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Mirassol have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito is priced at 1.56.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito at 61%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Mirassol at 15%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito. Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito is priced at 1.56. The draw is priced at 3.9. Mirassol is priced at 6.35.
Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Mirassol have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Mirassol have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 42% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito or Mirassol?
Our model rates Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito as the most likely outcome at 61% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito vs Mirassol?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 1 Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito wins, 1 draws, 1 Mirassol wins.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.