Pumas UNAM vs Club Necaxa: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Pumas UNAMvs
Club NecaxaThe model puts Pumas UNAM at 50%. The model leans toward Pumas UNAM. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Pumas UNAM.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Pumas UNAM are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Club Necaxa are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Pumas UNAM have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Club Necaxa have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Pumas UNAM have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Pumas UNAM will be without Angulo Mosquera, Cordova, Macias J..
- Club Necaxa will be without Tello, Rosero.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Pumas UNAM at 50%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Club Necaxa at 25%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Pumas UNAM. Pumas UNAM is priced at 1.94. The draw is priced at 3.5. Club Necaxa is priced at 3.665.
Pumas UNAM have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Club Necaxa have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Pumas UNAM have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Pumas UNAM are on 2 wins in a row. Club Necaxa have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Pumas UNAM or Club Necaxa?
Our model rates Pumas UNAM as the most likely outcome at 50% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Pumas UNAM vs Club Necaxa?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Pumas UNAM wins, 4 draws, 5 Club Necaxa wins.
Match statistics
Pumas UNAM
- 1Navas
- 5Duarte Ru.
- 6da Silva N.A.
- 7Lopez
- 8Carrasquilla
- 18Arteaga
- 21Antuna U.
- 23Juninho Ol.
- 24Leone T.
- 31Morales
- 45Vite
- Angulo Mosquera (Missing Player)
- Cordova (Missing Player)
- Macias J. (Missing Player)
Club Necaxa
- 3Olivera A.
- 4Pena Al.
- 6Leyva D.
- 8Faravelli
- 9Carranza J.
- 10Ruiz
- 11Torres Patino
- 12Jimenez
- 14Zaleta Oropeza
- 33Martinez Ruiz R.
- 99Rodriguez
- Tello (Questionable)
- Rosero (Questionable)
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10:2 | 13 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Toluca | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:4 | 10 |
| 3 |  Tijuana | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6:2 | 10 |
| 4 |  Monterrey | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12:7 | 9 |
| 5 |  Leon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7:5 | 9 |
| 6 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6:5 | 9 |
| 7 | Pumas UNAM | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:5 | 7 |
| 8 |  Puebla | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:5 | 7 |
| 9 |  Queretaro | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:6 | 7 |
| 10 |  Guadalajara | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 7 |
| 11 |  Cruz Azul | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8:8 | 6 |
| 12 | Club Necaxa | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6:7 | 6 |
| 13 |  Atlante | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5:7 | 5 |
| 14 |  Tigres de la UANL | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8:10 | 4 |
| 15 |  Pachuca | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6:6 | 3 |
| 16 |  Atletico San Luis | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4:8 | 2 |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2:8 | 0 |
| 18 |  Juarez | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3:15 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.