Russia vs Iran: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Russiavs
IranThe model puts Russia at 58%. The model leans toward Russia. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Russia.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Russia have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Iran have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Russia have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Russia is priced at 1.696.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 10 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Russia at 58%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Iran at 17%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Russia. Russia is priced at 1.696. The draw is priced at 3.58. Iran is priced at 5.4.
Russia have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Iran have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Russia have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Russia are on 2 wins in a row. Iran have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 44% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Russia or Iran?
Our model rates Russia as the most likely outcome at 58% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Russia vs Iran?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 1 Russia wins, 2 draws, 1 Iran wins.
League table
Friendlies. National Teams| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Australia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:1 | 6 |
| 2 |  Cameroon | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  China | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 3 |
| 4 |  Curacao | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.