Benfica vs AGF Aarhus: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Benficavs
AGF AarhusThe model puts Benfica at 82%. The model leans toward Benfica. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Benfica.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Benfica have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AGF Aarhus have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Benfica is priced at 1.168.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | |||||
| 1 | 6 | 3 | ||||
| 2 | 11 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 13 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 12 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 9 | 4 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Benfica at 82%. The model puts the draw at 12%. The model puts AGF Aarhus at 6%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-0.
The market leans toward Benfica. Benfica is priced at 1.168. The draw is priced at 7.5. AGF Aarhus is priced at 15.
Benfica have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. AGF Aarhus have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 36% for both teams to score. The model gives 78% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Benfica or AGF Aarhus?
Our model rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 82% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Benfica vs AGF Aarhus?
A scoreline around 3-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.