Perugia Calcio vs Vis Pesaro: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
The model puts Perugia Calcio at 46%. The model leans toward Perugia Calcio. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Vis Pesaro.
- −The head-to-head record favours Vis Pesaro (2-2-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Perugia Calcio have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Vis Pesaro have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Perugia Calcio have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Perugia Calcio is priced at 1.9.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Perugia Calcio at 46%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Vis Pesaro at 27%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Perugia Calcio. Perugia Calcio is priced at 1.9. The draw is priced at 3.125. Vis Pesaro is priced at 3.925.
Perugia Calcio have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Vis Pesaro have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Perugia Calcio have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Vis Pesaro have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Perugia Calcio or Vis Pesaro?
Our model rates Perugia Calcio as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Perugia Calcio vs Vis Pesaro?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 8 meetings: 2 Perugia Calcio wins, 2 draws, 4 Vis Pesaro wins.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.