New England Revolution vs New York City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
New England Revolutionvs
New York CityThe model puts New England Revolution at 46%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours New England Revolution.
- +New England Revolution score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- −The head-to-head record favours New York City (5-2-8).
- −New England Revolution are dealing with notable absentees.
- +New York City are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- New England Revolution have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- New York City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- New England Revolution have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- New England Revolution will be without Farrell A., Feingold, Campana, Langoni, Turgeman.
- New York City will be without O'Neill Ai., Andrew Baiera, Arnau Farnos, Trewin, Martinez, Morales M.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts New England Revolution at 46%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts New York City at 33%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. New England Revolution is priced at 2.256. The draw is priced at 3.9. New York City is priced at 2.83.
New England Revolution have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. New York City have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
New England Revolution have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. New York City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
New England Revolution average 2 goals per game this season. New England Revolution average 51% possession. New York City average 1 goals per game this season. New York City average 54% possession.
The model gives 59% for both teams to score. The model gives 58% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, New England Revolution or New York City?
Our model rates New England Revolution as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for New England Revolution vs New York City?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 New England Revolution wins, 2 draws, 8 New York City wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Match statistics
New England Revolution
- 0Turner M.
- 0Sands
- 0Fofana
- 0Kohler
- 0Polster
- 0Yusuf Al.
- 0Raines
- 0Gil C.
- 0Miller
- 0Harris
- 0Harrison J.
- Farrell A. (2)
- Feingold (2)
- Campana (2)
- Langoni (2)
- Turgeman (3)
New York City
- 0Freese
- 0Cavallo
- 0Gustavo
- 0Sands J.
- 0Gray
- 0Perea
- 0Parks K.
- 0Traore
- 0Nicolas Fernandez
- 0Ojeda
- 0Luighi
- O'Neill Ai. (2)
- Andrew Baiera (2)
- Arnau Farnos (2)
- Trewin (2)
- Martinez (2)
- Morales M (2)
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Houston Dynamo | 20 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 29:24 | 38 |
| 2 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 19 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 40:18 | 37 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles | 21 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 35:21 | 34 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 20 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 38:28 | 33 |
| 5 |  Dallas | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 38:29 | 33 |
| 6 |  St. Louis City | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 28:26 | 30 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 20 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 30:25 | 28 |
| 8 |  Real Salt Lake | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 33:30 | 28 |
| 9 |  Portland Timbers | 20 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 37:36 | 27 |
| 10 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 25:30 | 25 |
| 11 |  Minnesota United | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 22:28 | 25 |
| 12 |  Seattle Sounders | 19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 21:26 | 24 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 34:32 | 24 |
| 14 |  Austin | 20 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 25:39 | 20 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 20 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 19:49 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.