Spezia Calcio vs S.E.F. Sassari Torres 1903: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Spezia Calciovs
S.E.F. Sassari Torres 1903The model puts Spezia Calcio at 57%. The model leans toward Spezia Calcio. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours S.E.F. Sassari Torres 1903.
- +The head-to-head record favours Spezia Calcio (3-0-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Spezia Calcio have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- S.E.F. Sassari Torres 1903 have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Spezia Calcio have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Spezia Calcio is priced at 1.55.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Spezia Calcio at 57%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts S.E.F. Sassari Torres 1903 at 20%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Spezia Calcio. Spezia Calcio is priced at 1.55. The draw is priced at 3.68. S.E.F. Sassari Torres 1903 is priced at 5.43.
Spezia Calcio have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. S.E.F. Sassari Torres 1903 have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Spezia Calcio have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. S.E.F. Sassari Torres 1903 have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. S.E.F. Sassari Torres 1903 are on 5 wins in a row.
The model gives 45% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Spezia Calcio or S.E.F. Sassari Torres 1903?
Our model rates Spezia Calcio as the most likely outcome at 57% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Spezia Calcio vs S.E.F. Sassari Torres 1903?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 3 Spezia Calcio wins, 0 draws, 1 S.E.F. Sassari Torres 1903 wins.
Match statistics
Match story
How the game unfoldedCautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)
Spezia Calcio make it count (Mazzocchi S. (40')). It's 1–0 at this point.
Half-time score: Spezia Calcio 1 – 0 S.E.F. Sassari Torres 1903.
An end-to-end spell with goals at both ends (Di Stefano (64'), Sapola (69'), Cazzadori (73')). Score moves to 3–1.
Spezia Calcio make it count (Durmush (78')). It's 4–1 at this point.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.