Tigres de la UANL vs Atlante: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Tigres de la UANLvs
AtlanteThe model puts Tigres de la UANL at 63%. The model leans toward Tigres de la UANL. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Tigres de la UANL.
- −The head-to-head record favours Atlante (1-1-9).
- −Tigres de la UANL are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Tigres de la UANL have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atlante have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tigres de la UANL have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Tigres de la UANL will be without Angulo, Araújo, Farfan Mar., Rodrigues O, Flores, Herrera.
- Tigres de la UANL is priced at 1.44.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Tigres de la UANL at 63%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Atlante at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Tigres de la UANL. Tigres de la UANL is priced at 1.44. The draw is priced at 4.55. Atlante is priced at 6.28.
Tigres de la UANL have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Atlante have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Tigres de la UANL have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Atlante have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Tigres de la UANL or Atlante?
Our model rates Tigres de la UANL as the most likely outcome at 63% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Tigres de la UANL vs Atlante?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 11 meetings: 1 Tigres de la UANL wins, 1 draws, 9 Atlante wins.
Match statistics
Tigres de la UANL
- 1Guzman N.
- 2Fernandez
- 8Gorriaran
- 11Brunetta
- 14Garza
- 15Franco
- 16Lainez Leyva
- 17Aguirre R.
- 23Zwarg
- 28Pereira Silva J. H.
- 30Sanchez Guevara
- Angulo (Questionable)
- Araújo (Missing Player)
- Farfan Mar. (Questionable)
- Rodrigues O (Questionable)
- Flores (Missing Player)
- Herrera (Questionable)
Atlante
- 1Jimenez O.
- 4Tercero Mendez
- 6Carrera
- 7Palacios
- 8Pizzuto
- 9Puente
- 19Calzadilla
- 25Fernandez
- 29Portales
- 34Jimenez
- 44Quiros Ha.
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8:1 | 10 |
| 2 |  Tijuana | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6:2 | 10 |
| 3 |  Monterrey | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12:5 | 9 |
| 4 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6:5 | 9 |
| 5 |  Deportivo Toluca | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:3 | 7 |
| 6 |  Pumas UNAM | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:5 | 7 |
| 7 |  Puebla | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:5 | 7 |
| 8 |  Queretaro | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:4 | 7 |
| 9 |  Guadalajara | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 7 |
| 10 |  Cruz Azul | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8:8 | 6 |
| 11 |  Leon | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5:5 | 6 |
| 12 |  Club Necaxa | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6:7 | 6 |
| 13 | Atlante | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:5 | 5 |
| 14 |  Pachuca | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6:6 | 3 |
| 15 |  Atletico San Luis | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4:8 | 2 |
| 16 | Tigres de la UANL | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6:10 | 1 |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2:8 | 0 |
| 18 |  Juarez | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2:13 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.