Lech Poznan vs Thun: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Lech Poznanvs
ThunThe model puts Lech Poznan at 60%. The model leans toward Lech Poznan. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Lech Poznan.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Lech Poznan have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Thun have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lech Poznan is priced at 1.63.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Lech Poznan at 60%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Thun at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Lech Poznan. Lech Poznan is priced at 1.63. The draw is priced at 4.16. Thun is priced at 5.
Lech Poznan have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Thun have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 63% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Lech Poznan or Thun?
Our model rates Lech Poznan as the most likely outcome at 60% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Lech Poznan vs Thun?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.