Giugliano vs Sorrento Calcio: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Giuglianovs
Sorrento CalcioThe model puts Giugliano at 44%. The model leans toward Giugliano. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Sorrento Calcio.
- +The head-to-head record favours Giugliano (4-0-2).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Giugliano have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sorrento Calcio have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Giugliano have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Giugliano is priced at 2.09.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Giugliano at 44%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Sorrento Calcio at 28%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Giugliano. Giugliano is priced at 2.09. The draw is priced at 3.05. Sorrento Calcio is priced at 3.395.
Giugliano have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Sorrento Calcio have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Giugliano have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Sorrento Calcio have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Giugliano or Sorrento Calcio?
Our model rates Giugliano as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Giugliano vs Sorrento Calcio?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 Giugliano wins, 0 draws, 2 Sorrento Calcio wins.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.