Crotone vs Cosenza Calcio: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Crotonevs
Cosenza CalcioThe model puts Crotone at 49%. The model leans toward Crotone. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Cosenza Calcio.
- +The head-to-head record favours Crotone (9-4-2).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Crotone have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cosenza Calcio have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Crotone have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Crotone is priced at 1.86.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Crotone at 49%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Cosenza Calcio at 25%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Crotone. Crotone is priced at 1.86. The draw is priced at 3.22. Cosenza Calcio is priced at 3.945.
Crotone have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. Cosenza Calcio have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Crotone have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Cosenza Calcio have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Crotone or Cosenza Calcio?
Our model rates Crotone as the most likely outcome at 49% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Crotone vs Cosenza Calcio?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 9 Crotone wins, 4 draws, 2 Cosenza Calcio wins.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.