Besiktas vs Zalgiris Kaunas: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Besiktasvs
Zalgiris KaunasThe model puts Besiktas at 88%. The model leans toward Besiktas. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Besiktas.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Besiktas have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Zalgiris Kaunas have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Besiktas is priced at 1.09.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 18 | 4 | ||||
| 2 | 21 | 4 | ||||
| 3 | 17 | 3 | ||||
| 4 | 10 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Besiktas at 88%. The model puts the draw at 9%. The model puts Zalgiris Kaunas at 3%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Besiktas. Besiktas is priced at 1.09. The draw is priced at 9.5. Zalgiris Kaunas is priced at 31.
Besiktas have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Besiktas are on 5 wins in a row. Zalgiris Kaunas have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 17% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Besiktas or Zalgiris Kaunas?
Our model rates Besiktas as the most likely outcome at 88% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Besiktas vs Zalgiris Kaunas?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward a balanced game.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.