Egnatia vs Lillestrom: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Egnatiavs
LillestromThe model puts Lillestrom at 45%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Egnatia.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Egnatia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lillestrom have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lillestrom is priced at 2.03.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Egnatia at 30%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Lillestrom at 45%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Lillestrom. Egnatia is priced at 3.48. The draw is priced at 3.66. Lillestrom is priced at 2.03.
Egnatia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Lillestrom have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 62% for both teams to score. The model gives 61% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Egnatia or Lillestrom?
Our model rates Lillestrom as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Egnatia vs Lillestrom?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.