Alcione Milano vs Novara Calcio: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Alcione Milanovs
Novara CalcioThe model puts Alcione Milano at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Alcione Milano.
- +The head-to-head record favours Alcione Milano (2-1-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Alcione Milano have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Novara Calcio have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Alcione Milano have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Alcione Milano is priced at 2.52.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Alcione Milano at 39%. The model puts the draw at 29%. The model puts Novara Calcio at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Alcione Milano is priced at 2.52. The draw is priced at 2.94. Novara Calcio is priced at 2.66.
Alcione Milano have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Novara Calcio have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Alcione Milano have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Novara Calcio have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Alcione Milano or Novara Calcio?
Our model rates Alcione Milano as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Alcione Milano vs Novara Calcio?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 2 Alcione Milano wins, 1 draws, 1 Novara Calcio wins.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.