Bari vs Casarano Calcio: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Barivs
Casarano CalcioThe model puts Bari at 46%. The model leans toward Bari. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Bari.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Bari have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Casarano Calcio have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bari is priced at 2.1.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Bari at 46%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Casarano Calcio at 27%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Bari. Bari is priced at 2.1. The draw is priced at 3.125. Casarano Calcio is priced at 3.27.
Casarano Calcio have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Bari have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Casarano Calcio have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Bari or Casarano Calcio?
Our model rates Bari as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Bari vs Casarano Calcio?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 Bari wins, 0 draws, 1 Casarano Calcio wins.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Match story
How the game unfoldedCautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)
Bari make it count (Butic K. (45+1')). It's 1–0 at this point.
Half-time score: Bari 1 – 0 Casarano Calcio.
The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (1–0)
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (1–0)
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.