Giana Erminio vs Folgore Caratese A.S.D.: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Giana Erminiovs
Folgore Caratese A.S.D.The model puts Giana Erminio at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Giana Erminio have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Folgore Caratese A.S.D. have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Giana Erminio is priced at 2.14.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Giana Erminio at 43%. The model puts the draw at 30%. The model puts Folgore Caratese A.S.D. at 27%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Giana Erminio is priced at 2.14. The draw is priced at 2.96. Folgore Caratese A.S.D. is priced at 3.375.
The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Giana Erminio have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Folgore Caratese A.S.D. have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Giana Erminio or Folgore Caratese A.S.D.?
Our model rates Giana Erminio as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Giana Erminio vs Folgore Caratese A.S.D.?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 0 Giana Erminio wins, 2 draws, 0 Folgore Caratese A.S.D. wins.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Match story
How the game unfoldedCautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)
Giana Erminio make it count (Samele (17')). It's 1–0 at this point.
Half-time score: Giana Erminio 1 – 0 Folgore Caratese A.S.D..
Folgore Caratese A.S.D. make it count (Unknown (64')). It's 1–1 at this point.
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (1–1)
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.