Plymouth Argyle vs Coventry City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Plymouth Argylevs
Coventry CityThe model puts Coventry City at 53%. The model leans toward Coventry City. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Plymouth Argyle are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Coventry City are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Plymouth Argyle have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Coventry City have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Plymouth Argyle have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Plymouth Argyle will be without Baidoo M., Issaka Z., Oseni O., McKenzie.
- Coventry City will be without Mason-Clark E., Wright H..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 15 | 11 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Plymouth Argyle at 22%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Coventry City at 53%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Coventry City. Plymouth Argyle is priced at 4.46. The draw is priced at 3.98. Coventry City is priced at 1.73.
Plymouth Argyle have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Coventry City have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Plymouth Argyle have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Coventry City have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Plymouth Argyle average 2 goals per game this season. Plymouth Argyle average 63% possession.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 39% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Plymouth Argyle or Coventry City?
Our model rates Coventry City as the most likely outcome at 53% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Plymouth Argyle vs Coventry City?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 Plymouth Argyle wins, 2 draws, 6 Coventry City wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Plymouth Argyle
- 0Cooper
- 0Hartridge
- 0Ross
- 0Mitchell
- 0Harding W.
- 0Curtis R.
- 0White
- 0Ibrahim
- 0Amaechi
- 0Pepple A.
- 0Evans
- Baidoo M. (Missing Player)
- Issaka Z. (Missing Player)
- Oseni O. (Missing Player)
- McKenzie (Missing Player)
Coventry City
- 0Rushworth
- 0Latibeaudiere J.
- 0Kitching
- 0Thomas Bo.
- 0van Ewijk M.
- 0Hamer G.
- 0Yirenkyi
- 0Torp
- 0Thomas-Asante
- 0Awoniyi
- 0Sakamoto T.
- Mason-Clark E. (Questionable)
- Wright H. (Missing Player)
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.