PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
PSV Eindhovenvs
GroningenThe model puts PSV Eindhoven at 66%. The model leans toward PSV Eindhoven. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Groningen (1-1-13).
- −Recent form favours Groningen.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- PSV Eindhoven have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Groningen have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- PSV Eindhoven have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- PSV Eindhoven is priced at 1.35.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts PSV Eindhoven at 66%. The model puts the draw at 16%. The model puts Groningen at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward PSV Eindhoven. PSV Eindhoven is priced at 1.35. The draw is priced at 5.5. Groningen is priced at 7.6.
PSV Eindhoven have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Groningen have won 13 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
PSV Eindhoven have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Groningen have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
PSV Eindhoven average 2 goals per game this season. PSV Eindhoven average 76% possession. Groningen average 2 goals per game this season. Groningen average 59% possession.
The model gives 56% for both teams to score. The model gives 72% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, PSV Eindhoven or Groningen?
Our model rates PSV Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 66% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 1 PSV Eindhoven wins, 1 draws, 13 Groningen wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Netherlands. Eredivisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:1 | 6 |
| 2 |  Fortuna Sittard | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:3 | 4 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 4 |  Go Ahead Eagles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 3 |
| 5 |  Ajax | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 6 | Groningen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 8 |  Feyenoord | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 9 |  Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | 3 |
| 10 |  N.E.C. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:3 | 3 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 12 |  Telstar | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 13 |  Twente | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 15 |  ADO Den Haag | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 16 |  Utrecht | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 17 |  Willem II | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:8 | 0 |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.