Al-Khaleej vs Al Shabab Riyadh: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Al-Khaleejvs
Al Shabab RiyadhThe model puts Al Shabab Riyadh at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Al Shabab Riyadh.
- +The head-to-head record favours Al Shabab Riyadh (3-4-8).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Al-Khaleej have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Al Shabab Riyadh have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Al-Khaleej have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Al Shabab Riyadh is priced at 2.409.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Al-Khaleej at 34%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Al Shabab Riyadh at 42%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Al-Khaleej is priced at 2.627. The draw is priced at 3.65. Al Shabab Riyadh is priced at 2.409.
Al-Khaleej have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Al Shabab Riyadh have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Al-Khaleej have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Al Shabab Riyadh have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Al-Khaleej or Al Shabab Riyadh?
Our model rates Al Shabab Riyadh as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Al-Khaleej vs Al Shabab Riyadh?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 3 Al-Khaleej wins, 4 draws, 8 Al Shabab Riyadh wins.
League table
Saudi Arabia. Saudi Professional League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Hilal Riyadh | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:2 | 6 |
| 2 |  Al Nassr | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 3 |  Ettifaq Dammam | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:2 | 3 |
| 4 |  Al-Qadisiyah | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 3 |
| 5 |  Al Hazm Rass | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 6 |  Neom SC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 7 |  Al-Ahli Jeddah | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 8 |  Al-Ittihad Jeddah | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 9 |  Al Kholood | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 10 | Al-Khaleej | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 11 |  Al-Taawon | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 12 |  Abha | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 13 |  Al Draih | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 14 |  Al-Faisaly Harmah | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:4 | 0 |
| 15 |  Al-Riyadh SC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:4 | 0 |
| 16 | Al Shabab Riyadh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 0 |
| 17 |  Al-Fateh Al-Ahsa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
| 18 |  Al Feiha | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.