Club Atletico Guemes vs Atletico de Rafaela: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Club Atletico Guemesvs
Atletico de RafaelaThe model puts Club Atletico Guemes at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Club Atletico Guemes have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atletico de Rafaela have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Club Atletico Guemes have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Club Atletico Guemes is priced at 2.395.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Club Atletico Guemes at 38%. The model puts the draw at 33%. The model puts Atletico de Rafaela at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Club Atletico Guemes is priced at 2.395. The draw is priced at 2.78. Atletico de Rafaela is priced at 3.105.
Club Atletico Guemes have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Atletico de Rafaela have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Club Atletico Guemes have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Atletico de Rafaela have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Club Atletico Guemes or Atletico de Rafaela?
Our model rates Club Atletico Guemes as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Club Atletico Guemes vs Atletico de Rafaela?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 1 Club Atletico Guemes wins, 2 draws, 1 Atletico de Rafaela wins.
Odds movement
League table
Argentina. Primera B Nacional| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ferro Carril Oeste | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 31:23 | 49 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Moron | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 41:24 | 45 |
| 3 |  Club Atletico Colon | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 34:20 | 45 |
| 4 |  Club Almirante Brown | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 22:16 | 41 |
| 5 |  Deportivo Madryn | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 36:24 | 40 |
| 6 |  Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 29:22 | 40 |
| 7 |  Estudiantes de Buenos Aires | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 23:22 | 35 |
| 8 |  Ciudad de Bolivar | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 22:23 | 35 |
| 9 |  CA Los Andes | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 20:15 | 33 |
| 10 |  Racing De Cordoba | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 24:29 | 32 |
| 11 |  CA San Miguel | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 20:25 | 29 |
| 12 |  Club Atletico Mitre | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 25:33 | 29 |
| 13 |  Central Norte Salta | 25 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 17:25 | 27 |
| 14 |  All Boys | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 15:23 | 27 |
| 15 |  Defensores de Belgrano | 25 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 16:23 | 26 |
| 16 |  Chaco For Ever | 25 | 6 | 12 | 7 | 22:29 | 25 |
| 17 |  CA San Telmo | 25 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 20:29 | 24 |
| 18 |  Acassuso | 25 | 5 | 13 | 7 | 18:30 | 22 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.