Karlsruher vs VfL Wolfsburg: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Karlsruhervs
VfL WolfsburgThe model puts VfL Wolfsburg at 45%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Karlsruher.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −VfL Wolfsburg are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Karlsruher have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- VfL Wolfsburg have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Karlsruher have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Karlsruher will be without Tremoulet.
- VfL Wolfsburg will be without Trevor Chidubem Benedict, Grzywacz, Amoura, Wellenreuther, Vranckx, Oliveira da Silva R., Цейнтер, Eriksen.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 25 | 19 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 16 | 12 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 1 | |||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Karlsruher at 31%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts VfL Wolfsburg at 45%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward VfL Wolfsburg. Karlsruher is priced at 3.395. The draw is priced at 3.88. VfL Wolfsburg is priced at 1.94.
Karlsruher have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. VfL Wolfsburg have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
Karlsruher have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Karlsruher are on 2 wins in a row. VfL Wolfsburg have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Karlsruher average 1 goals per game this season. Karlsruher average 62% possession. VfL Wolfsburg average 0 goals per game this season. VfL Wolfsburg average 63% possession.
The model gives 25% for both teams to score. The model gives 16% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Karlsruher or VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model rates VfL Wolfsburg as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Karlsruher vs VfL Wolfsburg?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 10 meetings: 5 Karlsruher wins, 0 draws, 5 VfL Wolfsburg wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Germany. 2. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nurnberg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:2 | 6 |
| 2 |  Hertha BSC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 3 | Karlsruher | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:1 | 4 |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1:0 | 4 |
| 5 |  Eintracht Braunschweig | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6:2 | 3 |
| 6 |  Arminia Bielefeld | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 3 |
| 7 |  VfL Bochum | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 3 |
| 8 |  Energie Cottbus | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 9 |  1. Heidenheim | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:7 | 3 |
| 10 |  1. Magdeburg | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 11 |  Dynamo Dresden | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 3 |
| 12 |  Holstein | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4:4 | 2 |
| 13 |  St. Pauli | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3:3 | 2 |
| 14 |  1. Kaiserslautern | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0:0 | 2 |
| 15 |  Darmstadt 98 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 16 |  Greuther Furth | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:5 | 1 |
| 17 |  Hannover 96 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:4 | 0 |
| 18 |  VfL Osnabruck | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3:7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.