1. Heidenheim vs Dynamo Dresden: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
1. Heidenheimvs
Dynamo DresdenThe model puts 1. Heidenheim at 44%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours 1. Heidenheim.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −1. Heidenheim are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Dynamo Dresden are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- 1. Heidenheim have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Dynamo Dresden have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- 1. Heidenheim have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- 1. Heidenheim will be without Conteh S., Conteh.
- Dynamo Dresden will be without Bunning, Schmidt.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts 1. Heidenheim at 44%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Dynamo Dresden at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. 1. Heidenheim is priced at 2.26. The draw is priced at 3.75. Dynamo Dresden is priced at 2.788.
1. Heidenheim have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Dynamo Dresden have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
1. Heidenheim have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Dynamo Dresden have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
1. Heidenheim average 4 goals per game this season. 1. Heidenheim average 54% possession. Dynamo Dresden average 0 goals per game this season. Dynamo Dresden average 44% possession.
The model gives 69% for both teams to score. The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, 1. Heidenheim or Dynamo Dresden?
Our model rates 1. Heidenheim as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for 1. Heidenheim vs Dynamo Dresden?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 1. Heidenheim wins, 4 draws, 6 Dynamo Dresden wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Germany. 2. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nurnberg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:2 | 6 |
| 2 |  Hertha BSC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 3 |  Karlsruher | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:1 | 4 |
| 4 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1:0 | 4 |
| 5 |  Eintracht Braunschweig | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6:2 | 3 |
| 6 |  Arminia Bielefeld | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 3 |
| 7 |  VfL Bochum | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 3 |
| 8 |  Energie Cottbus | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 9 | 1. Heidenheim | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:7 | 3 |
| 10 |  1. Magdeburg | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 11 | Dynamo Dresden | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 3 |
| 12 |  Holstein | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4:4 | 2 |
| 13 |  St. Pauli | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3:3 | 2 |
| 14 |  1. Kaiserslautern | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0:0 | 2 |
| 15 |  Darmstadt 98 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 16 |  Greuther Furth | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:5 | 1 |
| 17 |  Hannover 96 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:4 | 0 |
| 18 |  VfL Osnabruck | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3:7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.