AEK Athens vs Levski Sofia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
AEK Athensvs
Levski SofiaThe model puts AEK Athens at 61%. The model leans toward AEK Athens. Confidence: high.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- AEK Athens have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Levski Sofia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AEK Athens is priced at 1.56.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts AEK Athens at 61%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Levski Sofia at 15%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward AEK Athens. AEK Athens is priced at 1.56. The draw is priced at 3.9. Levski Sofia is priced at 6.4.
The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
AEK Athens have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Levski Sofia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 42% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, AEK Athens or Levski Sofia?
Our model rates AEK Athens as the most likely outcome at 61% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for AEK Athens vs Levski Sofia?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 AEK Athens wins, 1 draws, 0 Levski Sofia wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.