Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Independiente del Vallevs
Deportes TolimaThe model puts Independiente del Valle at 60%. The model leans toward Independiente del Valle. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Independiente del Valle have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Deportes Tolima have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Independiente del Valle have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Independiente del Valle is priced at 1.59.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Independiente del Valle at 60%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Deportes Tolima at 15%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Independiente del Valle. Independiente del Valle is priced at 1.59. The draw is priced at 3.82. Deportes Tolima is priced at 6.15.
Independiente del Valle have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Deportes Tolima have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Independiente del Valle have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Deportes Tolima have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Independiente del Valle or Deportes Tolima?
Our model rates Independiente del Valle as the most likely outcome at 60% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 1 Independiente del Valle wins, 1 draws, 1 Deportes Tolima wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.