Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Excelsiorvs
Sparta RotterdamThe model puts Excelsior at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Sparta Rotterdam.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Excelsior have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sparta Rotterdam have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Excelsior have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Excelsior is priced at 2.15.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Excelsior at 43%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Sparta Rotterdam at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward Excelsior. Excelsior is priced at 2.15. The draw is priced at 3.68. Sparta Rotterdam is priced at 3.155.
Excelsior have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Sparta Rotterdam have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Excelsior have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Excelsior are on 2 wins in a row. Sparta Rotterdam have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Sparta Rotterdam are on 5 wins in a row.
Excelsior average 1 goals per game this season. Excelsior average 41% possession. Sparta Rotterdam average 3 goals per game this season. Sparta Rotterdam average 39% possession.
The model gives 69% for both teams to score. The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Excelsior or Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model rates Excelsior as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Excelsior wins, 2 draws, 7 Sparta Rotterdam wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Netherlands. Eredivisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:1 | 6 |
| 2 |  Groningen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 3 |  Go Ahead Eagles | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6:3 | 4 |
| 4 |  Fortuna Sittard | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:3 | 4 |
| 5 |  Ajax | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 4 |
| 6 |  PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 4 |
| 8 |  Feyenoord | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 4 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | 3 |
| 10 |  N.E.C. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:3 | 3 |
| 11 |  Twente | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 13 |  Telstar | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 14 |  Utrecht | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 15 |  PEC Zwolle | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:5 | 0 |
| 16 |  ADO Den Haag | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:6 | 0 |
| 17 |  Willem II | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:8 | 0 |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.