AZ Alkmaar vs Go Ahead Eagles: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
AZ Alkmaarvs
Go Ahead EaglesThe model puts AZ Alkmaar at 63%. The model leans toward AZ Alkmaar. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Go Ahead Eagles.
- −The head-to-head record favours Go Ahead Eagles (1-4-10).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- AZ Alkmaar have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Go Ahead Eagles have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AZ Alkmaar have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- AZ Alkmaar is priced at 1.405.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts AZ Alkmaar at 63%. The model puts the draw at 17%. The model puts Go Ahead Eagles at 20%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-1.
The market leans toward AZ Alkmaar. AZ Alkmaar is priced at 1.405. The draw is priced at 5.1. Go Ahead Eagles is priced at 6.8.
AZ Alkmaar have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Go Ahead Eagles have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
AZ Alkmaar have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Go Ahead Eagles have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Go Ahead Eagles are on 2 wins in a row.
AZ Alkmaar average 2 goals per game this season. AZ Alkmaar average 54% possession. Go Ahead Eagles average 4 goals per game this season. Go Ahead Eagles average 69% possession.
The model gives 74% for both teams to score. The model gives 90% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, AZ Alkmaar or Go Ahead Eagles?
Our model rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 63% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Go Ahead Eagles?
A scoreline around 3-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 1 AZ Alkmaar wins, 4 draws, 10 Go Ahead Eagles wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Netherlands. Eredivisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 2 |  Groningen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 3 | Go Ahead Eagles | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6:3 | 4 |
| 4 |  Ajax | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 4 |
| 5 |  PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 6 |  Heerenveen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 4 |
| 7 |  Feyenoord | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 4 |
| 8 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6:5 | 4 |
| 9 |  Fortuna Sittard | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:5 | 4 |
| 10 |  Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | 3 |
| 11 |  N.E.C. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:3 | 3 |
| 12 |  Twente | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 13 |  Telstar | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 14 |  Utrecht | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5:9 | 1 |
| 15 |  PEC Zwolle | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:5 | 0 |
| 16 |  ADO Den Haag | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:6 | 0 |
| 17 |  Willem II | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:8 | 0 |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.