PEC Zwolle vs N.E.C.: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
PEC Zwollevs
N.E.C.The model puts N.E.C. at 61%. The model leans toward N.E.C.. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours PEC Zwolle (7-4-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- PEC Zwolle have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- N.E.C. have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- PEC Zwolle have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- N.E.C. is priced at 1.5.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts PEC Zwolle at 20%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts N.E.C. at 61%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward N.E.C.. PEC Zwolle is priced at 5.5. The draw is priced at 4.88. N.E.C. is priced at 1.5.
PEC Zwolle have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. N.E.C. have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
PEC Zwolle have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. PEC Zwolle are on 2 wins in a row. N.E.C. have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
PEC Zwolle average 0 goals per game this season. PEC Zwolle average 31% possession. N.E.C. average 4 goals per game this season. N.E.C. average 68% possession.
The model gives 62% for both teams to score. The model gives 69% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, PEC Zwolle or N.E.C.?
Our model rates N.E.C. as the most likely outcome at 61% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs N.E.C.?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 PEC Zwolle wins, 4 draws, 4 N.E.C. wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Netherlands. Eredivisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 2 |  Groningen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 3 |  Go Ahead Eagles | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6:3 | 4 |
| 4 |  Ajax | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 4 |
| 5 |  PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 6 |  Feyenoord | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 4 |
| 7 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6:5 | 4 |
| 8 |  Fortuna Sittard | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:5 | 4 |
| 9 |  Heerenveen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 10 |  Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | 3 |
| 11 | N.E.C. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:3 | 3 |
| 12 |  Twente | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 13 |  Telstar | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3:5 | 3 |
| 15 |  Utrecht | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5:9 | 1 |
| 16 |  ADO Den Haag | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:6 | 0 |
| 17 |  Willem II | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:8 | 0 |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.