Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Utrechtvs
PSV EindhovenThe model puts PSV Eindhoven at 53%. The model leans toward PSV Eindhoven. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Utrecht (9-5-1).
- −Recent form favours Utrecht.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Utrecht have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- PSV Eindhoven have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Utrecht have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings.
- PSV Eindhoven is priced at 1.66.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Utrecht at 27%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts PSV Eindhoven at 53%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward PSV Eindhoven. Utrecht is priced at 4.4. The draw is priced at 4.46. PSV Eindhoven is priced at 1.66.
Utrecht have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. PSV Eindhoven have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Utrecht have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. PSV Eindhoven have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Utrecht average 1 goals per game this season. Utrecht average 48% possession. PSV Eindhoven average 2 goals per game this season. PSV Eindhoven average 59% possession.
The model gives 56% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Utrecht or PSV Eindhoven?
Our model rates PSV Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 53% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 9 Utrecht wins, 5 draws, 1 PSV Eindhoven wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Netherlands. Eredivisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 2 |  Go Ahead Eagles | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:4 | 7 |
| 3 |  Groningen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 4 |  Ajax | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 4 |
| 5 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 6 |  Feyenoord | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 4 |
| 7 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6:5 | 4 |
| 8 |  Fortuna Sittard | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:5 | 4 |
| 9 |  Heerenveen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 10 |  Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | 3 |
| 11 |  N.E.C. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:3 | 3 |
| 12 |  Twente | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 13 |  Telstar | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3:5 | 3 |
| 15 | Utrecht | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5:9 | 1 |
| 16 |  Willem II | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:8 | 0 |
| 17 |  Cambuur | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:7 | 0 |
| 18 |  ADO Den Haag | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2:9 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.