Estudiantes de La Plata vs Corinthians Paulista: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Estudiantes de La Platavs
Corinthians PaulistaThe model puts Estudiantes de La Plata at 44%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Estudiantes de La Plata.
- −Estudiantes de La Plata are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Corinthians Paulista are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Estudiantes de La Plata have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Corinthians Paulista have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Estudiantes de La Plata will be without Palacios, Pereira, Arzamendia S..
- Corinthians Paulista will be without Ramallo, Kayke, Сантос Диас, Vitinho, Labyad Z., Alberto.
- Estudiantes de La Plata is priced at 2.32.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Estudiantes de La Plata at 44%. The model puts the draw at 31%. The model puts Corinthians Paulista at 26%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Estudiantes de La Plata is priced at 2.32. The draw is priced at 2.896. Corinthians Paulista is priced at 3.6.
Corinthians Paulista have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Estudiantes de La Plata have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Corinthians Paulista have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Estudiantes de La Plata or Corinthians Paulista?
Our model rates Estudiantes de La Plata as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Estudiantes de La Plata vs Corinthians Paulista?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 0 Estudiantes de La Plata wins, 1 draws, 1 Corinthians Paulista wins.
Match statistics
Estudiantes de La Plata
- 4Nunez
- 9Carrillo G.
- 13Benedetti
- 16Muslera
- 17Burgos
- 21Piovi L.
- 22Castro Ale.
- 24Palacios T.
- 31Rodriguez
- 32Carlos Joaquin Correa
- 40Mancuso
- Palacios (Missing Player)
- Pereira (Missing Player)
- Arzamendia S. (Missing Player)
Corinthians Paulista
- 2Matheuzinho
- 3Paulista G.
- 7Bidon
- 8Garro
- 10Depay
- 13Henrique G.
- 19Andre Carrillo
- 21Bidu M.
- 29Allan R. S
- 37Kaio Cesar
- 51Camargo K.
- Ramallo (Missing Player)
- Kayke (Missing Player)
- Сантос Диас (Missing Player)
- Vitinho (Missing Player)
- Labyad Z. (Missing Player)
- Alberto (Missing Player)
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.