Thun vs Lech Poznan: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Thunvs
Lech PoznanThe model puts Lech Poznan at 44%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Thun.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Thun have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lech Poznan have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Thun have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Lech Poznan is priced at 2.25.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Thun at 33%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Lech Poznan at 44%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Thun is priced at 2.8. The draw is priced at 3.96. Lech Poznan is priced at 2.25.
Thun have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Thun have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Lech Poznan have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Lech Poznan are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Thun or Lech Poznan?
Our model rates Lech Poznan as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Thun vs Lech Poznan?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 1 Thun wins, 0 draws, 0 Lech Poznan wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.