Aurora Pro Patria 1919 vs Varesina: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Aurora Pro Patria 1919vs
VaresinaThe model puts Aurora Pro Patria 1919 at 51%. Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Aurora Pro Patria 1919 is priced at 1.8.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Aurora Pro Patria 1919 at 51%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Varesina at 22%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Aurora Pro Patria 1919. Aurora Pro Patria 1919 is priced at 1.8. The draw is priced at 3.3. Varesina is priced at 4.13.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Aurora Pro Patria 1919 or Varesina?
Our model rates Aurora Pro Patria 1919 as the most likely outcome at 51% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Aurora Pro Patria 1919 vs Varesina?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.