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Coppa Italia. Serie D

Lavarian Mortean Esperia vs Triestina Calcio: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

Lavarian Mortean Esperiavs Triestina Calcio
Our predictionTriestina Calcio to win
Model score: Medium · 43/100
Score hint: 0-1

The model puts Triestina Calcio at 65%. Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty. Confidence: medium.

Win probabilities

1 · Lavarian Mortean EsperiaDraw2 · Triestina Calcio
Full team comparison
Team strength rating
Lavarian Mortean Esperia
38
Triestina Calcio
69

Most likely scorelines

0-115.0%
0-214.1%
1-19.7%
1-29.1%
0-38.9%
0-08.0%

Expected goals

0.65Lavarian Mortean Esperia
xG
1.88Triestina Calcio
Over 2.5 goals46%
Both teams to score40%

Match DNA

AttackDefenseFormStrengthH2HVenue
Lavarian Mortean Esperia Triestina Calcio

Key points

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment
1X2Triestina Calcio win1.37Fair (-0.6%)
Double chanceTriestina Calcio or drawInfo

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A012345
081514942
15109631
22332
3
4
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

1X2Lavarian Mortean Esperia7.50+0.8%
1X2Draw4.15-0.2%
1X2Triestina Calcio1.37-0.6%
Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Full analysis

The model puts Lavarian Mortean Esperia at 13%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Triestina Calcio at 65%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.

The market leans toward Triestina Calcio. Lavarian Mortean Esperia is priced at 7.5. The draw is priced at 4.15. Triestina Calcio is priced at 1.373.

The model gives 40% for both teams to score. The model gives 46% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track RecordMethodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Lavarian Mortean Esperia or Triestina Calcio?

Our model rates Triestina Calcio as the most likely outcome at 65% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Lavarian Mortean Esperia vs Triestina Calcio?

A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

See odds at bookmakers

Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.