AGF Aarhus vs Benfica: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
AGF Aarhusvs
BenficaThe model puts Benfica at 65%. The model leans toward Benfica. Confidence: high.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- AGF Aarhus have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Benfica have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AGF Aarhus have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Benfica is priced at 1.456.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 3 | |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts AGF Aarhus at 17%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Benfica at 65%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Benfica. AGF Aarhus is priced at 5.9. The draw is priced at 5.05. Benfica is priced at 1.456.
AGF Aarhus have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
AGF Aarhus have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Benfica have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, AGF Aarhus or Benfica?
Our model rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 65% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for AGF Aarhus vs Benfica?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 1 AGF Aarhus wins, 0 draws, 0 Benfica wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.