Zalgiris Kaunas vs Besiktas: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Zalgiris Kaunasvs
BesiktasThe model puts Besiktas at 71%. The model leans toward Besiktas. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Besiktas.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Zalgiris Kaunas have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Besiktas have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Zalgiris Kaunas have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Besiktas is priced at 1.355.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 16 | 16 | 10 | 5 | 2 |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | ||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Zalgiris Kaunas at 11%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Besiktas at 71%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Besiktas. Zalgiris Kaunas is priced at 9.3. The draw is priced at 4.78. Besiktas is priced at 1.355.
Zalgiris Kaunas have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Zalgiris Kaunas have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Besiktas have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 36% for both teams to score. The model gives 46% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Zalgiris Kaunas or Besiktas?
Our model rates Besiktas as the most likely outcome at 71% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Zalgiris Kaunas vs Besiktas?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 1 Zalgiris Kaunas wins, 0 draws, 0 Besiktas wins.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.