Seattle Sounders vs Chicago Fire: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Seattle Soundersvs
Chicago FireThe model puts Chicago Fire at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Chicago Fire.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Seattle Sounders have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire is priced at 2.465.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Seattle Sounders at 36%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Chicago Fire at 41%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Seattle Sounders is priced at 2.59. The draw is priced at 3.82. Chicago Fire is priced at 2.465.
Seattle Sounders have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Chicago Fire have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 45% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Seattle Sounders or Chicago Fire?
Our model rates Chicago Fire as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Seattle Sounders vs Chicago Fire?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward a balanced game.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.