Portland Timbers vs Austin: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Portland Timbersvs
AustinThe model puts Portland Timbers at 62%. The model leans toward Portland Timbers. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Portland Timbers.
- +Portland Timbers score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- −The head-to-head record favours Austin (3-2-6).
- +Portland Timbers creates more chances (11 vs 9 shots per game).
- +Portland Timbers controls more of the ball (52% vs 41%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Portland Timbers have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Austin have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Portland Timbers have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Portland Timbers is priced at 1.6.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Portland Timbers at 62%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts Austin at 19%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Portland Timbers. Portland Timbers is priced at 1.6. The draw is priced at 4.48. Austin is priced at 4.88.
Portland Timbers have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Austin have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Portland Timbers have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Austin have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Portland Timbers average 2 goals per game this season. Portland Timbers average 52% possession. Austin average 1 goals per game this season. Austin average 41% possession.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 57% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Portland Timbers or Austin?
Our model rates Portland Timbers as the most likely outcome at 62% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Portland Timbers vs Austin?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 11 meetings: 3 Portland Timbers wins, 2 draws, 6 Austin wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 45:18 | 40 |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 21 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 30:26 | 38 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 36:22 | 35 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 21 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 39:33 | 33 |
| 5 |  Dallas | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 38:34 | 33 |
| 6 |  St. Louis City | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 30:27 | 33 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 21 | 9 | 11 | 1 | 30:28 | 28 |
| 8 |  Real Salt Lake | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 34:32 | 28 |
| 9 | Portland Timbers | 21 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 38:37 | 28 |
| 10 |  Minnesota United | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 27:29 | 28 |
| 11 |  San Diego | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 37:32 | 27 |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 27:32 | 26 |
| 13 |  Seattle Sounders | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 22:27 | 25 |
| 14 | Austin | 21 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 26:40 | 21 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 20 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 19:49 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.