Minnesota United vs Orlando City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Minnesota Unitedvs
Orlando CityThe model puts Minnesota United at 53%. The model leans toward Minnesota United. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Minnesota United.
- +Minnesota United creates more chances (15 vs 10 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Minnesota United controls more of the ball (50% vs 44%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Minnesota United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Orlando City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Minnesota United have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Minnesota United is priced at 1.775.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 8 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Minnesota United at 53%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Orlando City at 25%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Minnesota United. Minnesota United is priced at 1.775. The draw is priced at 4.16. Orlando City is priced at 4.
Minnesota United have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Orlando City have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Minnesota United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Orlando City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Minnesota United average 1 goals per game this season. Minnesota United average 50% possession. Orlando City average 1 goals per game this season. Orlando City average 44% possession.
The model gives 40% for both teams to score. The model gives 37% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Minnesota United or Orlando City?
Our model rates Minnesota United as the most likely outcome at 53% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Minnesota United vs Orlando City?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 9 meetings: 4 Minnesota United wins, 1 draws, 4 Orlando City wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 45:18 | 40 |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 21 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 30:26 | 38 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 36:22 | 35 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 21 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 39:33 | 33 |
| 5 |  Dallas | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 38:34 | 33 |
| 6 |  St. Louis City | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 30:27 | 33 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 21 | 9 | 11 | 1 | 30:28 | 28 |
| 8 |  Real Salt Lake | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 34:32 | 28 |
| 9 |  Portland Timbers | 21 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 38:37 | 28 |
| 10 | Minnesota United | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 27:29 | 28 |
| 11 |  San Diego | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 37:32 | 27 |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 27:32 | 26 |
| 13 |  Seattle Sounders | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 22:27 | 25 |
| 14 |  Austin | 21 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 26:40 | 21 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 20 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 19:49 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.