San Diego vs Los Angeles Galaxy: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
San Diegovs
Los Angeles GalaxyThe model puts San Diego at 53%. The model leans toward San Diego. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +San Diego score more per game (3.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- +San Diego controls more of the ball (62% vs 50%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- San Diego have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Los Angeles Galaxy have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- San Diego have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- San Diego is priced at 1.896.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts San Diego at 53%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Los Angeles Galaxy at 25%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward San Diego. San Diego is priced at 1.896. The draw is priced at 4. Los Angeles Galaxy is priced at 3.62.
San Diego have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
San Diego have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Los Angeles Galaxy have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
San Diego average 3 goals per game this season. San Diego average 62% possession. Los Angeles Galaxy average 2 goals per game this season. Los Angeles Galaxy average 50% possession.
The model gives 74% for both teams to score. The model gives 82% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, San Diego or Los Angeles Galaxy?
Our model rates San Diego as the most likely outcome at 53% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for San Diego vs Los Angeles Galaxy?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 2 San Diego wins, 0 draws, 0 Los Angeles Galaxy wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 45:18 | 40 |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 21 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 30:26 | 38 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 36:22 | 35 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 21 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 39:33 | 33 |
| 5 |  Dallas | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 38:34 | 33 |
| 6 |  St. Louis City | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 30:27 | 33 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 21 | 9 | 11 | 1 | 30:28 | 28 |
| 8 |  Real Salt Lake | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 34:32 | 28 |
| 9 |  Portland Timbers | 21 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 38:37 | 28 |
| 10 |  Minnesota United | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 27:29 | 28 |
| 11 | San Diego | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 37:32 | 27 |
| 12 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 27:32 | 26 |
| 13 |  Seattle Sounders | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 22:27 | 25 |
| 14 |  Austin | 21 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 26:40 | 21 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 20 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 19:49 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.