D.C. United vs Los Angeles: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
D.C. Unitedvs
Los AngelesThe model puts Los Angeles at 46%. The model leans toward Los Angeles. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- D.C. United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Los Angeles have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- D.C. United have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Los Angeles is priced at 2.035.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts D.C. United at 28%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Los Angeles at 46%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Los Angeles. D.C. United is priced at 3.48. The draw is priced at 3.64. Los Angeles is priced at 2.035.
D.C. United have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Los Angeles have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
D.C. United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Los Angeles have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
D.C. United average 2 goals per game this season. D.C. United average 43% possession. Los Angeles average 2 goals per game this season. Los Angeles average 48% possession.
The model gives 69% for both teams to score. The model gives 70% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, D.C. United or Los Angeles?
Our model rates Los Angeles as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for D.C. United vs Los Angeles?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 2 D.C. United wins, 1 draws, 2 Los Angeles wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 45:18 | 40 |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 21 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 30:26 | 38 |
| 3 | Los Angeles | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 36:22 | 35 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 21 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 39:33 | 33 |
| 5 |  Dallas | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 38:34 | 33 |
| 6 |  St. Louis City | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 30:27 | 33 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 21 | 9 | 11 | 1 | 30:28 | 28 |
| 8 |  Real Salt Lake | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 34:32 | 28 |
| 9 |  Portland Timbers | 21 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 38:37 | 28 |
| 10 |  Minnesota United | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 27:29 | 28 |
| 11 |  San Diego | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 37:32 | 27 |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 27:32 | 26 |
| 13 |  Seattle Sounders | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 22:27 | 25 |
| 14 |  Austin | 21 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 26:40 | 21 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 20 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 19:49 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.