Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Houston Dynamovs
San Jose EarthquakesThe model puts Houston Dynamo at 55%. The model leans toward Houston Dynamo. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Houston Dynamo.
- −San Jose Earthquakes score more per game (1.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- +The head-to-head record favours Houston Dynamo (8-3-4).
- +Houston Dynamo creates more chances (13 vs 9 shots per game).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Houston Dynamo have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Houston Dynamo have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Houston Dynamo is priced at 1.8.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Houston Dynamo at 55%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts San Jose Earthquakes at 23%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Houston Dynamo. Houston Dynamo is priced at 1.8. The draw is priced at 3.82. San Jose Earthquakes is priced at 4.22.
Houston Dynamo have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. San Jose Earthquakes have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Houston Dynamo have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. San Jose Earthquakes have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Houston Dynamo average 1 goals per game this season. Houston Dynamo average 40% possession. San Jose Earthquakes average 2 goals per game this season. San Jose Earthquakes average 44% possession.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Houston Dynamo or San Jose Earthquakes?
Our model rates Houston Dynamo as the most likely outcome at 55% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Houston Dynamo wins, 3 draws, 4 San Jose Earthquakes wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 45:18 | 40 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo | 21 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 30:26 | 38 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 36:22 | 35 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 21 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 39:33 | 33 |
| 5 |  Dallas | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 38:34 | 33 |
| 6 |  St. Louis City | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 30:27 | 33 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 21 | 9 | 11 | 1 | 30:28 | 28 |
| 8 |  Real Salt Lake | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 34:32 | 28 |
| 9 |  Portland Timbers | 21 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 38:37 | 28 |
| 10 |  Minnesota United | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 27:29 | 28 |
| 11 |  San Diego | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 37:32 | 27 |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 27:32 | 26 |
| 13 |  Seattle Sounders | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 22:27 | 25 |
| 14 |  Austin | 21 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 26:40 | 21 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 20 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 19:49 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.