Stade Rennais vs Paris Saint-Germain: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Stade Rennaisvs
Paris Saint-GermainThe model puts Paris Saint-Germain at 63%. The model leans toward Paris Saint-Germain. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Paris Saint-Germain.
- +The head-to-head record favours Paris Saint-Germain (5-2-8).
- −Paris Saint-Germain are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Stade Rennais have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Paris Saint-Germain have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Stade Rennais have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Stade Rennais will be without Camara.
- Paris Saint-Germain will be without Barcola B., Mbaye, Mendes.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 3 | |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Stade Rennais at 18%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Paris Saint-Germain at 63%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Paris Saint-Germain. Stade Rennais is priced at 5.7. The draw is priced at 4.54. Paris Saint-Germain is priced at 1.52.
Stade Rennais have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Paris Saint-Germain have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Stade Rennais have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Paris Saint-Germain have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 44% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Stade Rennais or Paris Saint-Germain?
Our model rates Paris Saint-Germain as the most likely outcome at 63% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Stade Rennais vs Paris Saint-Germain?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Stade Rennais wins, 2 draws, 8 Paris Saint-Germain wins.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Stade Rennais
- 4Cresswell
- 9Lepaul
- 11Al Tamari
- 17Szymanski S.
- 18Nagida
- 21Rongier Va.
- 28Thomasson
- 30Samba B.
- 45Soumare I.
- 48Ait Boudlal
- 95Frankowski
- Camara (Missing Player)
Paris Saint-Germain
- 2Hakimi
- 5Aoas Correa
- 7Kvaratskhelia K.
- 10Dembele
- 12Digne
- 14Doue D.
- 17Machado Vi.
- 33Zaire-Emery
- 39Safonov M.
- 51Tenorio
- 87Goncalves Neves
- Barcola B. (Missing Player)
- Mbaye (Missing Player)
- Mendes (Missing Player)
League table
France. Ligue 1| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Olympique de Marseille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  RC Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5:2 | 3 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 5 |  Le Mans | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 6 |  Lorient | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 7 |  Nice | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 8 |  Troyes AC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 9 |  Paris | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 10 |  Le Havre | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Lille OSC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  AS Monaco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 | Paris Saint-Germain | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Angers SCO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 | Stade Rennais | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Toulouse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 17 |  Auxerre | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:5 | 0 |
| 18 |  Strasbourg | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.