Atlanta United vs Charlotte: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Atlanta Unitedvs
CharlotteThe model puts Atlanta United at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Atlanta United.
- +Atlanta United creates more chances (14 vs 9 shots per game).
- +Atlanta United controls more of the ball (56% vs 43%).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Atlanta United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Charlotte have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atlanta United have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Atlanta United is priced at 2.28.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Atlanta United at 43%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Charlotte at 33%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Atlanta United is priced at 2.28. The draw is priced at 3.74. Charlotte is priced at 2.88.
Atlanta United have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Charlotte have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Atlanta United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Charlotte have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Atlanta United average 1 goals per game this season. Atlanta United average 56% possession. Charlotte average 1 goals per game this season. Charlotte average 43% possession.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 37% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Atlanta United or Charlotte?
Our model rates Atlanta United as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Atlanta United vs Charlotte?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 10 meetings: 5 Atlanta United wins, 1 draws, 4 Charlotte wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 45:18 | 40 |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 21 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 30:26 | 38 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 36:22 | 35 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 21 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 39:33 | 33 |
| 5 |  Dallas | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 38:34 | 33 |
| 6 |  St. Louis City | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 30:27 | 33 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 21 | 9 | 11 | 1 | 30:28 | 28 |
| 8 |  Real Salt Lake | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 34:32 | 28 |
| 9 |  Portland Timbers | 21 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 38:37 | 28 |
| 10 |  Minnesota United | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 27:29 | 28 |
| 11 |  San Diego | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 37:32 | 27 |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 27:32 | 26 |
| 13 |  Seattle Sounders | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 22:27 | 25 |
| 14 |  Austin | 21 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 26:40 | 21 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 20 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 19:49 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.