St. Louis City vs Dallas: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
St. Louis Cityvs
DallasThe model puts St. Louis City at 53%. The model leans toward St. Louis City. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +St. Louis City creates more chances (17 vs 13 shots per game).
- +St. Louis City controls more of the ball (54% vs 39%).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- St. Louis City have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Dallas have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- St. Louis City have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- St. Louis City is priced at 1.87.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts St. Louis City at 53%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Dallas at 25%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward St. Louis City. St. Louis City is priced at 1.87. The draw is priced at 4.18. Dallas is priced at 3.58.
St. Louis City have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Dallas have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
St. Louis City have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Dallas have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
St. Louis City average 2 goals per game this season. St. Louis City average 54% possession. Dallas average 2 goals per game this season. Dallas average 39% possession.
The model gives 66% for both teams to score. The model gives 73% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, St. Louis City or Dallas?
Our model rates St. Louis City as the most likely outcome at 53% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for St. Louis City vs Dallas?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 8 meetings: 3 St. Louis City wins, 3 draws, 2 Dallas wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 45:18 | 40 |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 21 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 30:26 | 38 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 36:22 | 35 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 21 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 39:33 | 33 |
| 5 | Dallas | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 38:34 | 33 |
| 6 | St. Louis City | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 30:27 | 33 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 21 | 9 | 11 | 1 | 30:28 | 28 |
| 8 |  Real Salt Lake | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 34:32 | 28 |
| 9 |  Portland Timbers | 21 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 38:37 | 28 |
| 10 |  Minnesota United | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 27:29 | 28 |
| 11 |  San Diego | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 37:32 | 27 |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 27:32 | 26 |
| 13 |  Seattle Sounders | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 22:27 | 25 |
| 14 |  Austin | 21 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 26:40 | 21 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 21 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 20:51 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.