Sporting Kansas City vs Vancouver Whitecaps: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sporting Kansas Cityvs
Vancouver WhitecapsThe model puts Vancouver Whitecaps at 69%. The model leans toward Vancouver Whitecaps. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Vancouver Whitecaps score more per game (1.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- +Vancouver Whitecaps creates more chances (10 vs 16 shots per game).
- +Vancouver Whitecaps controls more of the ball (44% vs 55%).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Sporting Kansas City have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Vancouver Whitecaps have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sporting Kansas City have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Vancouver Whitecaps is priced at 1.4.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 13 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 2 |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sporting Kansas City at 13%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts Vancouver Whitecaps at 69%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-2.
The market leans toward Vancouver Whitecaps. Sporting Kansas City is priced at 6.9. The draw is priced at 5.1. Vancouver Whitecaps is priced at 1.4.
Sporting Kansas City have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Vancouver Whitecaps have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Sporting Kansas City have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Vancouver Whitecaps have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Sporting Kansas City average 1 goals per game this season. Sporting Kansas City average 44% possession. Vancouver Whitecaps average 2 goals per game this season. Vancouver Whitecaps average 55% possession.
The model gives 44% for both teams to score. The model gives 54% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sporting Kansas City or Vancouver Whitecaps?
Our model rates Vancouver Whitecaps as the most likely outcome at 69% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sporting Kansas City vs Vancouver Whitecaps?
A scoreline around 0-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Sporting Kansas City wins, 1 draws, 6 Vancouver Whitecaps wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 45:18 | 40 |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 21 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 30:26 | 38 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 36:22 | 35 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 21 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 39:33 | 33 |
| 5 |  Dallas | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 38:34 | 33 |
| 6 |  St. Louis City | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 30:27 | 33 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 21 | 9 | 11 | 1 | 30:28 | 28 |
| 8 |  Real Salt Lake | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 34:32 | 28 |
| 9 |  Portland Timbers | 21 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 38:37 | 28 |
| 10 |  Minnesota United | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 27:29 | 28 |
| 11 |  San Diego | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 37:32 | 27 |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 27:32 | 26 |
| 13 |  Seattle Sounders | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 22:27 | 25 |
| 14 |  Austin | 21 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 26:40 | 21 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 20 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 19:49 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.